May 19, 2006

Assigned seating on The Company Plane?

The Whited Curse strikes again — Southwest Airlines is considering scrapping its open-seating policy:

The airline is overhauling its computerized-reservation system to add the ability to assign seats and offer international flights. Officials say neither change is for sure.

The earliest Southwest could switch to assigned seating, used by every other major U.S. carrier, is 2008, Chief Executive Gary Kelly said Wednesday. The system won’t be able to handle the tax and customs information required for international travel until the following year, he said.

It would be a mistake to move away from open seating. As SciGuy has discussed, it’s faster and more efficient than assigned seating. One of Southwest’s major competitive advantages is its quick turnaround time. Planes don’t make money sitting on the ground, so Southwest keeps ‘em in the air. By shaving just a few minutes off each flight, you can accumulate enough saved time during the day to fly one more hop. The flipside is also true: waste an extra few minutes on the ground every flight, and you run out of daylight pretty soon.

To see, let’s crunch some numbers. Let’s say a Southwest plane’s workday is 12 hours; the first takeoff is at 8:00 a.m., and the plane has to be on the ground in its final destination city by 8:00 p.m. Let’s assume 1-hour flights with 20 minutes on the ground in between flights. For simplicity’s sake, all flights are within the same time zone.

The timetable looks like this:

  • Flight 1: 8:00-9:00
  • Flight 2: 9:20-10:20
  • Flight 3: 10:40-11:40
  • Flight 4: 12:00-1:00
  • Flight 5: 1:20-2:20
  • Flight 6: 2:40-3:40
  • Flight 7: 4:00-5:00
  • Flight 8: 5:20-6:20
  • Flight 9: 6:40-7:40

That’s 9 flights a day. To make it easy, we’ll assume 100 passengers per flight, each paying $100. That’s 10 grand in revenue per flight. Fly this route every day for a year, and you pull in $32.85 million.
Now let’s say you introduce assigned seating, and let’s say it adds just 5 more minutes on the ground, per flight. Now your timetable looks like this:

  • Flight 1: 8:00-9:00
  • Flight 2: 9:25-10:25
  • Flight 3: 10:50-11:50
  • Flight 4: 12:15-1:15
  • Flight 5: 1:40-2:40
  • Flight 6: 3:05-4:05
  • Flight 7: 4:30-5:30
  • Flight 8: 5:55-6:55

Because of all the dilly-dallying on the ground, Flight 9 won’t get in before closing time, so it gets cut. Using the same assumptions as before, annual revenue just fell from $32.85 million to $29.2 million, a loss of $3.65 million or 11.1 percent. And that’s just on one route. Extrapolate that figure systemwide, and you’re talking some serious coin.

Of course, this idea makes sense if enough passengers are willing to pay a premium for assigned seating. It would have to be a pretty big premium, though — 11.1 percent just to break even. I don’t think many Southwest customers would pay it, given the choice. I sure as hell wouldn’t.

[Hat-tip: Laurence]


Comments

  1. May 19th, 2006 | 9:24 am

    The end of the free for all? …

    Southwest Airlines may put the kibosh on its carnival seating. According to this Associated Press story, the airline’s new computer reservation system will have the ability to assign seats and book international flights. (Hat tip to Matt B.) The seati…

  2. May 19th, 2006 | 10:50 am

    Don’t do it Southwest! Stop messing around with a system that works! Look around and say “Who else is making a profit?”

  3. May 19th, 2006 | 4:05 pm

    Well, put me in the minority here, but I’d be happy to see that chaotic seating policy go away!

    As for international flights, I just cannot imagine what that would be like on Southwest. *shudder*

  4. May 19th, 2006 | 4:08 pm

    I can’t imagine that they’re really going to do international flights. Maybe they’re setting up for a merger with one of the dinocarriers?

    Who knows, Kevin, your next business trip might be on Shamu. :)

  5. May 20th, 2006 | 6:42 pm

    Assigned Seating Southwest?…

    Will assigned seating come to Southwest Airlines?……

  6. Tom Bazan
    May 21st, 2006 | 11:52 am

    What if the extra time needed is compensated for with slightly faster transit times and/or staggering two gates offset to negate the encumberance of is policy?

  7. Davebo
    May 22nd, 2006 | 4:11 pm

    I’m certain the part about international flights is just about them being able to book passengers on international carriers and shuttle them on SW flights to the airport of international departure.

    You definately wouldn’t want to fly to London on a 737. And Southwest would be crazy to screw up it’s best feature, an airline operating a single type of aircraft. The savings in spares, training, etc. is huge.

  8. RobG
    May 23rd, 2006 | 10:39 am

    the hassle of dealing with the free-for-all seating makes no sense when the ticket prices SW charges are no cheaper to fly to places than other airlines. I fly all over the US up to 10-15 times a year and very very rarely do SW’s ticket prices beat Continental or USAir.

  9. bobinbelen
    July 11th, 2006 | 7:28 am

    Sometimes the American pioneer spirit can take a wrong turn. SouthWest is doing just that by experimenting with assigned seating. Boarding by groups has worked just fine in the past although complaints did come for flyers who were used to the assignment at all the bankrupt airlines. Too bad …. I’d much rather have the humor from the cockpit and flight attendants, board by group, and enjoy the lower fares (which now aren’t getting any lower.)

    SouthWest says they are experimenting with this to see if they can shave a little “airplane-on-the-ground” time which could result in more efficient use of aircraft and flight crews. Maybe so, maybe not. The airline seemed to do quite well using its founders model.

    SUGGESTION: If you believe SW is wrong in thinking to a conversion to reserved seating, all you have to do is one little thing. Just take your sweet time boarding the aircraft. A little longer before moving down the jetway, stop and say hello to the attendant at the door, take it easy getting your luggage into the overhead. If many people do this, SW will see the boarding time increase, not decrease. You’ll make your point and they will abandon the misguided attempt to make themselves into more of a traditional airline. How’s that for an idea???

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